Scott Hanselman

Technology Predictions for 2004

December 20, 2003 Comment on this post [3] Posted in Web Services
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.NET Developer's Journal has posted Technology Predictions for 2004 and they'll be in the print magazine this month.  My predictions are included as well.  Here they are:

  • The year of the smart personal object: Microsoft's Wrist Net (MSNDirect) watches will launch, introducing SPOT (Smart Personal Objects Technology) to the world. Previous technologies have failed miserably. (Remember the Java Ring?) Since watches are the only piece of personal jewelry that folks will wear consistently (not counting iPods), a smart watch that presents the weather, traffic, instant messages, e-mail, stock quotes, appointments, etc., will be the perfect complement to an increasingly information-cluttered world. For those who can't decide between a PDA, a phone, a Smartphone, or a smart PDA phone, a smart watch for only $179 may be just the ticket. Expect to see lots of .NET Web services pop up around Wrist Net. As a diabetic, I expect to have one that tells my wife my blood sugar level wirelessly ASAP!

  • The year of the WS-I: The Web Services Interoperability Organization's Basic Profile will start to take root. It's been out a while, but this will be the year when there will be no excuse for not being WS-I compliant. As chief architect of my company, I'll tell you that we'll be much less likely to do business with vendors that aren't presenting WS-I-compliant services.

  • The end of unmanaged business code: Good luck to you if you are still creating new business functionality in VB6 or ASP in 2004. With the introduction of .NET 2.0, there will be simply no good excuse to avoid .NET. Expect to see 90% of all new meaningful projects on Windows to include a .NET component.

What are your Technology Predictions for 2004?

About Scott

Scott Hanselman is a former professor, former Chief Architect in finance, now speaker, consultant, father, diabetic, and Microsoft employee. He is a failed stand-up comic, a cornrower, and a book author.

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December 20, 2003 3:01
>The end of unmanaged business code

Isn't that assuming that .NET 2.0 ships in 2004? ;) Last I heard, Whidbey is targeted for late in the year, which probably means little meaningful Whidbey adoption until 2005. Of course, I await it eagerly. :)

December 20, 2003 6:22
I am not sure about complete adoption of .net. I just taught a class this week and people are just start to look into .net I think it will take a year or so and 2005 will be the year of mass conversion to managed code. I also worked with banks and i was stuck with vb 6.0 on the client machines because IT stuff does not want to deploy the .net framework. So, it is not all that simple!

Maxim (do you?)
December 20, 2003 15:11
Whidbey will ship, but Yukon won't.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are my own personal opinions and do not represent my employer's view in any way.